NFBC Shares - May 👀

NFBC Shares

May 4, 2024

Author: 3-1Count.com

I’ve been playing NFBC for quite a few years now. I’ve evolved to mostly draft and hold formats there. They really help shape my ranker and they serve as great warm up drafts for my recurring leagues. Plus, and a big plus, they have less workload during the season. You set your lineup twice a week and that’s pretty much it.

I did 10 of the NFBC draft and holds this year and now is a good point to look back at my player shares across those leagues. I’ll hit some highlights with rationale first and then include the list of all player shares 5 and above.

Colt Keith (10 shares) - Well, the rationale here was Keith can absolutely hit and it made for a strong return opportunity with him going between picks 250-310. And knowing he would quickly turn into 2B/3B eligibility helped. Keith’s my only 10 share player and the return so far has been poor. I’m not giving up hope though. Keith is hanging on to his role, has an 8% BB rate and only 17% K rate. His BABIP is below .200 and with an EV over 88 and a barrel rate approaching 8% all signs suggests better days are ahead.

Heston Kjerstad (8) - I felt you just can’t keep a guy like this down. He was always a late pick with low cost / starting OF upside. So far, I like my chances of this paying off by the second half. Though Kjerstad’s PT with the Orioles so far has been frustrating. It’s just such a deep loaded lineup and organization.

Robert Gasser (8) - He started the year on the IL and has made two starts since coming off - throwing 4 innings in each. All indications are that once built up Gasser will move into the Brewers rotation. He threw 135 IP last year so reaching 150 IP this year is reasonable. The Brewers are a really, really good team and need the rotation help. I’m still feeling strong on this one.

Tyler Soderstrom (7) - Another low cost pick with upside and a move I primarily did hoping for a FT role and eventual catcher eligibility. So far this is a dud, but at least Soderstrom is hitting well at AAA and logging innings behind the plate.

Orelvis Martinez (7) - I am sitting at the table waiting to be served on this one. Orelvis is raking at AAA, on the 40, and seemingly has a pretty clear path to PT. A call up in May seems very likely.

Ranger Suarez (6) - This was not a sexy pick at all. But at pick 329-345, which was my range, I liked the value. Suarez had a sure role, he’s an absolute bulldog, and likely had some upside. Watching him pitch in the playoffs last year was part of the reason I liked the pick as well. Early returns are waaaaaay better than I ever would have expected. Really, anything under a 4.00 era mixed with a 150+ IP would be a great return for this late of a pick.

MJ Melendez (6) - I’ve been pulling for Melendez ever since seeing him whack 3 bombs in a game at AA. Easy power and I keep feeling like the hit tool will come along. His start to this season has been awful and he rides the pine in ever league I have him in.

Anthony Volpe (6) - 20/20 last year and seemingly underlying metrics couldn’t get much worse. So grabbing Volpe around pick 130 lined up as a an interesting value. Downside of 20/20 with low BA, runs and RBI and upside of a top 50 player. So far, so good.

Josh Lowe (6) - Really like the player and he had a great 2023. In hindsight, even without the injury, I think pick 66-88 might have been a bit of a reach. And now having lost 20-25% of the season that is looking worse.

Brenton Doyle (5) and Daulton Varsho (5) - Different pick ranges but similar thinking. Both guys had a FT role, both play great D to keep them there, and both have 20/20 on the table. And neither cost much. Solid returns so far.

Jose Quintana (5) and Austin Hays (5) - In both cases they kept “falling” to me. And now it looks like I caught mud. Hays may not have a role when he comes back from injury and Quintana just laid a huge egg bloating his season stats even further.

Brice Turang (5) - This is my kind of pick in a draft and hold. Potential for high upside with little cost. I felt going in that Turang had a role and that he could deliver a 270/70/10/50/40 season. At pick 320-350 he was drafted in a bench role. With 2 position eligibility and 14 steals already Turang is active in every one of my lineups. Big return so far!

Joel Payamps (5) - A draft and hold staple is to search for potential impact bullpen arms very late. Payamps was an after 500 pick who was coming off a really good season. So the play was to have someone in place if Devin Williams went down or was traded. I ended up with 5 shares of Payamps and 3 of Trevor Megill, so it’s turning out to be a good example of when the approach works out.

I’ll take another look at how my larger share players have contributed later in the season. It’s early now, so this will likely look quite different by the All-Star break.

NFBC Shares - Draft and Hold Format

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