Steals on the Value Aisle
April 4, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
The first week or so of the season is in the books and our team already is showing a lack of steals. Maybe it was that our draft didn’t come together or an injury to someone like Matt McLain left us short. So, let’s take a look at some options that shouldn’t break the bank via trade or FAAB.
Starling Marte - sprint speed has declined the last couple of years and now sits at 27.1 (337th in MLB). Still a very good baserunner and coming off a 24 of 28 SB year I expect he will still run some. Steamer says 28 steals. I would definitely take the under there given speed decline and history of injuries that have limited time on the field. I’ve already had trade inquiries on Starling in one of my leagues, someone looking to add SB’s.
Nico Hoerner - off to a really slow start yet I think the cost to trade for him would still be substantial given his contributions last year.
Jarren Duran - Steamer says there is 26 SB’s here. With 6 already banked it’s not hard to see Duran ending up with at least 40. The only thing likely to derail this would be a loss of PT. He’s off to a strong start but also riding a .500 BABIP. Duran is also a steals guy that won’t totally tank you in other categories. With the strong start, you would be buying high here.
Thairo Estrada - the playing time is there and the slow start is largely BABIP driven. There could be 20 steals here and possibly a buy low moment.
Brenton Doyle - excellent base runner with 98th percentile speed. Doyle is very athletic and reportedly has made some swing / approach adjustments. His defense is elite and will keep him in the lineup so if he can get his OBP even up to .320 there could be 30 steals here ROS. Doyle was a very late target for me in every redraft this year.
Jake Fraley - If you have weekly lineups then Fraley probably isn’t your guy. He’s in a platoon and that won’t change with a .153 career BA against lefties. If you are searching in a daily format, then Fraley could offer you 15-20 steals while also being productive in other categories.
Willi Castro - I faded Castro everywhere pre-season and ended up with zero shares. My reasoning was that he had no clear path to regular PT. Here we are a week or so in and Royce Lewis is out, Brooks Lee isn’t coming up soon due to injury and Castro is once again playing pretty regular. Another player better suited for daily lineups and he might be available for FAAB in your league.
Jose Siri - regular PT is likely there for Siri even when Josh Lowe returns. A good baserunner with elite speed. 15-20 steals may be available.
Jose Caballero - it was hard to see regular PT for Caballero, yet here we are. He has three steals already and is capable of continuing to run heavily. PT remains the issue and I do not expect him to maintain it. Just too many options with the Rays. There’s also not much else in this profile. This is an avoid for me. Daily lineups only if you have to go here.
Victor Scott II - I hope the Cardinals allow Scott enough runway to adjust to the faster MLB game. With Nootbar due back soon it’s hard to say though. A .120 BA does not help matters, even though low BABIP is a big factor. Scott II is capable of being a one man category while also not trashing your other categories. I doubt he’s available as a free agent anywhere but maybe you can catch a quick dealing owner who’s down on him atm.
Daulton Varsho - swing adjustments and hopefully a higher OBP as a result should put Varsho in the 20+ SB’s range. I like him as a target if the cost is reasonable.
Brice Turang - the cat may be out of the bag with Turang. A draft target for me, he already has 6 SB’s. Including two in one game a couple days ago that delivered a +3900 return for those that bet on it. Two position eligibility and 95th percentile speed support the profile. Steamer says 20 SB’s and you gotta take the over there. 40+ is possibleif things go well.
TJ Friedl - hurt and forgotten about atm. Friedl makes for a sneaky IL stash if you can grab him. 27 steals last year and an elite baserunner. The Reds expect Freidl back mid to late May and PT should be there when he returns.
Taylor Walls - another IL stash candidate, Walls should be back in May. He can run but PT is always a question with most of the Rays players. Probably a guy to just drop on your scout team for now.
Braden Shewmake - a 2019 1st rd pick who all the sudden finds himself with a path to regular playing time on the White Sox. If he delivered his AAA numbers from last year we wouldn’t hate it - 16 homers, 27 steals and decent runs and RBI’s. Shewmake is worth the flyer, a low cost guy that could offer nice profit if he holds a role in Chicago.
Noelvi Marte - he ran more than expected last year, clocking 24 steals across three levels. And now he’s out 80 games on a PED suspension. I liked the player before the suspension and certainly less so now. This boils down to price, if affordable enough he could be an interesting stash but with PT questions even when he returns there seems to be a lot of other places to put your investment in redraft.
Trey Lipscomb - not really known for his speed he is a 50 grade runner per Fangraphs and has hit low double digits each of his two years since being drafted. The 3B role is open for him to grab in Washington and he is off to a strong start. Maybe 10-15 steals to be had here. Lipscomb is interesting to add in redraft and dynasty.
A few names to consider where the player is currently in the minors but expected up at some point this year are: Kyren Paris, Roman Anthony, James Wood, Dylan Crews, Jett Williams, Adael Amador, Luisangel Acuna, Dustin Harris, Jacob Hurtubise, Ryan Bliss.
Each has uncertainty to arrival and performance, particularly in redraft.
It’s easier to spot fill SB’s in daily lineups than weekly ones. And that will be a consideration as we try to boost steals on any of our teams that are in need. Taking likely cost and PT factors into consideration I would probably first target Turang, Doyle, Friedl, Varsho, Lipscomb and see where that get’s me and then reassess.
