This and That
May 2, 2024
Author: 3-1Count.com
William Contreras - coming off a breakout 2023 Contreras is off to a tremendous start to 2024. MVP candidate level play for the quietly really, really good Milwaukee Brewers. A career walk rate over 10% and a K rate that has declined each year he’s been in the league - now sitting under 20%. Contreras consistently delivers high EV (93.9 avg atm) and is over 10% barrel rate. Point is, looking under the hood everything supports this is a statistically supported next level of performance. Admittedly, I did not see Contreras reaching this level when he was coming up with the Braves. I saw him several times in AA and then as he came up. I’m completely bought in now. He’s currently sitting atop all catchers in fantasy value and you have to look at Contreras, Rutschman, and Will Smith as top tier in dynasty.
Shota Imanaga - incredibly fun to watch and the results have been dominant. 6 games, 5 wins, 34.2 IP, 4 QS, and an ERA under 1 at .78. At 4 years and $53m the Cubs may have the best signing of the off-season. Early leader for ROY and a fantasy difference maker whether redraft or dynasty. The only question is sell high or ride the wave.
Kyle Bradish - he looked surprisingly good in his first game back after hitting the IL after his first start in 2024. Bradish went 4 2/3 IP against the NYY, striking out 5 and allowing only one run. Velo was there and the Orioles allowed Bradish to throw 84 pitches. It’s an encouraging outing and a healthy Bradish would be huge for the Orioles ROS.
Alec Bohm - I know, I know…Bohm’s BABIP is over .400 driving his BA and OBP. Don’t let that lull you into missing a guy that is just flat producing. An 11% walk rate and 15% K rate is elite and not out of line of his career progression. Bohm’s EV is good and barrels are running 8.2%, so things do check out. The 4 homers may seem a tad low but the 12 doubles suggest there is more. And the 30 RBI is on a 150 RBI pace…not likely, but 100 to 120 hitting in the middle of that Phillies lineup is on the table. When Bohm came through the AFL I really liked his ability to drive the ball to RF and felt he had really good hands for the approach. It was an interesting look for me as I had a very smart MLB scout suggest Bohm wouldn’t be an impact guy. I had a more positive read, not superstar, just looking like a quality major league bat to me at the time and that seems to be lining up.
Juan Soto - a preseason MVP candidate for most everyone, including me. I had Soto in my top 3 counting on how much he thrives in the spotlight. So far it’s been spectacular. Soto is pacing for a .325/110/40/125/20 season with a .439 OBP. With a 191 wRC+ and already posting 2.2 WAR Soto is making it pretty impossible for the Yankees not to offer him a new contract.
Jessie Winker - short blurb, just have to point out that Winker has 3 SB’s on the year. Matching his entire career total, covering 610 games coming into 2024.
Carlos Rodon - watched a good bit of the May 2 game at BAL. Rodon’s slider looked good and velo was there when needed, touching 99. It’s a brutally tough Orioles lineup to face and Rodon did give up 3 home runs. Coming in to the game Rodon had 3 QS’s in 6 games this year and was at 8+ K’s per 9. The takeaway for me is that Rodon isn’t back to his 2022 level yet, but is clearly much better than last year and appears on the upswing.
Edward Cabrera - I love the raw stuff, it can be absolutely filthy. The command issues and inconsistencies are maddening though. His May 2nd outing sums it up pretty well - 4 IP, 91 pitches, 4 walks, 9 K’s, 4 runs given up. Cabrera’s ERA is now over 6 on the year and you have to wonder what his role would be if the Marlin’s didn’t have all of the SP injuries. Cabrera is Arb eligible next year and this will be a factor too. Trade candidate at some point next 12 months or a move to the bullpen? He could be a dominant high leverage guy.
Prospect Call-ups:
Recent: In the last week we have seen Joey Loperfido HOU, Jordan Beck COL, Tyler Black MLW, and Anthony Maldonado MIA. All three hitters are interesting, and in different ways. Yet none of the three have a sustained clear path to PT without strong performances. On Maldonado, he’s a reliever with 14 career saves at AAA over 3 seasons. So, of course, he comes up and quickly picks up a save. He’s a RHP featuring a SL, FB, FC mix and doesn’t throw particularly hard. I know the Marlins pen has question marks but I don’t feel Maldonado is one to chase hard from a fantasy stand point.
On the way? Some of the possibles include (in no particular order)…Paul Skenes, Coby Mayo, James Wood, Kyle Manzardo, Christian Scott, Will Warren, Thomas Saggese, Orelvis Martinez, Robert Gasser, Dustin Harris. While writing this the Mets announced Scott is coming up for a start this weekend. Not much of a surprise, he was pitching great at AAA and the Mets had a need. At least for a start or two. Past that, Manzardo should be next up but who knows with Cleveland? Orelvis is making a loud case for promotion and there is a path to PT in Toronto. Mayo would be up pretty much anywhere but Baltimore. Skene’s is already slated for at least one more AAA start and Gasser is still building up his arm after an injury to open the year. Harris, Saggese, and Warren are solid at AAA and probably need an opening to move up. James Wood came out the gate crushing at AAA and his numbers show there is little else to do there. A softer couple of weeks recently for him combined with the Nationals depth at OF may have Wood at AAA longer than many of us would like.
